Saturday, 29 August 2015

Progress Report: Economy, Immigration and House of Lords Reform for the UK

The Conservative Government has been in power in the UK for almost 4 months, and it seems about time to review its progress now that 1/3 of a year has passed. As a surprise victory for the Conservatives (the first time a government has won an election with a majority for a decade, and the first Conservative majority government to be elected in over 20 years).

It's early days, but some strong feelings appear to be emerging on some issues. On a positive note, the economy seems to be a success so far, with the government's guidance and management of the economy appearing to work: breaking records in terms of numbers of people in employment in the UK, whilst the British economy has been one of the most successful in the developed world during David Cameron's terms as Prime Minister. It is also encouraging to hear that the government is occasionally achieving their goal of a budget surplus on a month-by-month basis, helping to bring down the overwhelming national debt- with interest repayments currently larger than defence spending.

Having said that, there are two pressing issues that the government seems reluctant to deal with, but are proving to be an embarrassment. Firstly, the most high profile is immigration. A government which, when coming into office, must surely be regretting its pledge to reduce immigration to tens of thousands of people a year, from the annual intake of hundreds of thousands of people it inherited. However, it has so far failed every year to achieve this promise- and this year has seen a record amount of people entering the country, so an unmitigated failure. Moreover, more clear to see has been the government's apparent impotence in the face of repeated attempts by migrants to enter the UK via the French port of Calais, with apparent cat-and-mouse games as migrants are captured before crossing the English Channel- only to be released and allowed to attempt it again.

Upon review, the numbers tend to show that the numbers of immigrants tends to be split 50/50 between those migrating to the UK (as they are legally able to do) unhindered via the EU, while the other half are from beyond the EU- over which the UK government is able to place restrictions. However, the government appears not to have so far attempted to compensate for the larger numbers of EU migrants arriving by restricting non-EU migration enough accordingly. Failings in this significant policy area, both in practical terms clear by the numbers and for the public to see with the crises visible in Greece, Macedonia, and closer to home at Calais.

In addition, there is the less attention-grabbing issue of House of Lords reform. This second chamber of the UK legislature is in the midst of half-finished reform. The Blair government in the 1990s began the process, whereby no further hereditary peers would take their seats in the House of Lords. However, no replacement, long term solution was produced. Peers have been added to the House based on the choices of the governments of the day, often adding peers based on party political support. The current government has been embarrassed recently by the impracticality of the Lords containing more peers supporting its opponents. To try to assuage this, the Government has appointed many peers- but taking the uncapped membership of the house to over 800 members, with no legislative chamber containing as many members anywhere in the world except for China, a country with a population of several billions. Not only has the Government tried to add more members of its own party to the House, but the choices have also proven controversial- most infamously ennobling the man forced to leave the House of Commons because he had used state funds to clear the moat around his home!

These issues may blow over for the time being soon, but they will not go away until they are properly addressed- and hopefully the Government will be brave enough to do so, rather than try to feebly avoid them. In terms of immigration, the Government should drastically try to restrict non-EU immigration enough to compensate for EU arrivals- or otherwise expect public resentment to increase, and potentially vote to leave the EU. This would reduce the pressures on the jobs market, housing, schools, healthcare, water supplies and others. In terms of the House of Lords, clearer restrictions on the number of peers should be placed, while combining government-appointed peers with those elected by the public, potentially on the basis of proportional representation. Maybe even equal numbers of representatives for the nations of the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) would compensate for the dominance of English Members of Parliament in the House of Commons. Let's hope the Government addresses the issue while it has the majority in government and parliament to achieve changes on its own terms.