A story that has featured in the UK news over the past week has been how Prince Charles' letters written to government ministers 10 years ago, after much debate in court, are going to be made public- despite opposition to this from the government and Prince Charles himself. I personally agree with this opposition. It's easy to side with the decision to publish them- to cite public interest, and the idea of "what does he have to hide?" (A logic which has been used for snooping on the public, as well as exposing the files of the secret services-arguably to the detriment of national security and the armed forces).
At the end of the day, it is the opinions of a man being shared with the government- opinions which ministers can consider, but are not obliged to follow, as with anyone else's views. But he's not your man-on-the-street, he's the heir to the throne, having an influence, some may say. This is true, he is indeed heir to the throne- and one of the crucial duties of the monarchy is to provide advice and opinions, based on their lifelong exposure to government and global affairs. Prince Charles would be neglecting his duties if he didn't offer advice. When revealed, it's likely they will arouse some controversy- as indeed virtually all opinions do. As soon as someone expresses an opinion, there is bound to be someone who disagrees. However, if leaders become too concerned with trying to please everybody, they would not be able to get things done, and will ultimately please nobody.
Moreover, does the public really need to know the opinions of all its leaders? It's one thing for leaders to express opinions in public, at their own risk; but they are not even entitled to private opinions? We respect this with the current monarch's monthly meetings with the Prime Minister; world leaders often meet in private, and summarise (and presumably censor) their discussions afterwards at press conferences. Where do we draw the line with the logic of "it's the public's right to know"? The last Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, was caught out during the last general election when he privately expressed a lack of sympathy with a voter who took a strong view on immigration- by the logic that that discovery was in the public good, maybe we should always record politicians' conversations (private and public; at work or at home) so that the public can ensure that the opinions politicians express are genuine.
If it is felt that the contents of these letters should be released, why not at least take the same approach as with government records, and wait for 30 years?
Sunday, 29 March 2015
Saturday, 21 March 2015
800 Years of English Royal History since Magna Carta
This year marks the 800th anniversary since the signing of Magna Carta in 1215: a landmark in English history, and particularly in England's royal history. For this reason and several others, it seems an apt time to reflect on the development of England and her monarchy over the past 8 centuries...
In 1215, King John of England, the monarch demonised in the legends of Robin Hood, signed the famous agreement, the Magna Carta or 'Great Charter'. The document has been much celebrated over the centuries as a key feature of the English and, ultimately, British constitution, whereby the principle of restricting the power of the country's leaders, and guarantees of the rights of the nation's subjects, were established in writing. Not introduced by the goodwill of the monarch however, King John was compelled to do so by the influential section of English feudal society, the barons. This was evidenced by his attempt soon after to disregard the document, which led to the renewal of conflict between King John and the barons until his death the following year, while these tensions in English society were inherited by his son and successor, King Henry III, who would himself be compelled to make a concession to democracy as great as his father's concession to civil liberties: just as King John signed the Magna Carta, so King Henry III would be held to account by a Parliament in Westminster, London, consisting of influential figures in English society...
In 1315, England was again experiencing the rule of a King who was perceived as weak and lacked the support of his people. King Edward II had been on the throne for 8 years, having failed to match up to the impressive legacy of his father, the warrior-king Edward I, known as 'Hammer of the Scots' for his relentless attempts to conquer Scotland, who had hoped to duplicate his successful conquest of Wales and its annexation to the Kingdom of England. In 1314, by contrast, King Edward II came to be associated with defeat in the Battle of Bannockburn, when England's larger armies were nevertheless defeated by the smaller forces of King Robert 'the Bruce' of Scotland- marking a major setback for England's ambitions. Moreover, King Edward II even lacked the support of his wife, Queen Isabella, who herself personally helped lead a rebellion against her husband which forced him from the throne, into imprisonment, and ultimately death (allegedly killed by a burning hot poker being forced up his backside), which ultimately allowed for the accession of his son, another warrior-king, Edward III, who oversaw the beginnings of England's 'Hundred Years War' with France...
In 1415, the 'Hundred Years War', begun decades earlier by King Edward III of England, is in full swing. As if this isn't debilitating enough, the line of succession to the English throne has been complicated by the seizure of the English throne from King Richard II by his cousin, the Duke of Lancaster, who established the rule of the House of Lancaster, and reigned as King Henry IV. Despite his dubious claim to the English throne, and the boils that covered his body as an apparent sign of God's disapproval of his accession to the throne, King Henry IV nevertheless surprisingly laid the foundations for a smooth transfer of the throne to his son, who became King Henry V, upon his death two years earlier in 1413. In spite of these unstable times, at home and abroad, Henry V has gone down as a heroic monarch, as in this year he prestigiously won the great victory at the Battle of Agincourt- a key moment in the Hundred Years War with France. As a consequence of this victory, King Henry V was the first English monarch to be formally recognised as King of France. Alas, the triumph was to be short-lived, which was due to the King himself being short-lived: he died 7 years later, only in his mid-thirties, leaving the throne to his son, King Henry VI, who was barely a year old at his accession. King Henry VI's inability to reign effectively, even when he was old enough to handle the full responsibilities of his position, meant the prompt loss of, first, the throne of France; then, even the loss of the English throne, bringing about the Wars of the Roses between King Henry VI and his supporters from the House of Lancaster, versus the rival claim of Prince Edward of York...
In 1515, the divisive Wars of the Roses are at an end, with the claim of the White Rose of York defeated by the Red Rose of Lancaster, with the latter victory achieved by Henry Tudor: a Welshman with a relatively tenuous link to the House of Lancaster. Nevertheless, by a strategic marriage to Elizabeth of York to boost his legitimacy, King Henry VII's Tudor dynasty, symbolically represented by the Tudor Rose, consisting of the combined Red and White Roses of Lancaster and York respectively, endured, allowing a relatively stable start for the now-iconic King Henry VIII 6 years ago, in 1509. By 1515, King Henry VIII was widely perceived as an ideal monarch: a dashing man with a warrior-like image, asserting the ambitions of an increasingly confident England that was looking to expand its influence with a growing navy; a prestigious state visit to France, where he was greeted by the Field of the Cloth of Gold; while the King could look forward to formal recognition as King of Ireland as well as England, and acclamation from the Pope as Fidei Defensor, or Defender of the Faith, (a title still proclaimed on British coins today, with the abbreviation FID DEF appearing around the monarch's portrait). In his personal life, King Henry VIII also seemed to be happily married to Princess Catherine of Aragon, widow of his late brother, Prince Arthur, and daughter of the powerful Spanish royal family. However, in the years ahead, the King's determination to have a son as his heir would arguably lead to the King's annulment of this marriage, and ultimately five successive marriages in the space of the decade following his split from Catherine. To achieve this serial monogamy, King Henry VIII had had to end his allegiance to the Pope and the Roman Catholic Church, establishing the Protestant Church of England instead, of which he would be head, thus triggering centuries of religious conflict in the British Isles...
In 1615, the English were coming to terms with their accidental personal union with Scotland, under the shared monarch, King James. The first monarch of the entire British Isles, King James would at first be King James VI of Scotland, before inheriting the thrones of his cousin twice-removed, Queen Elizabeth I of England and Ireland, the last Tudor monarch. Ten years ago, in 1605, King James would not receive the warmest of welcomes by the English, as a group of conspirators, who would today most likely be labelled as terrorists and religious extremists, planned to destroy the Parliament of England, along with King James, in their iconic Gunpowder Plot as an assertion of Catholic dissent against the established Protestantism of Queen Elizabeth I, which they hoped her successor would overturn. Taking place only 2 years into King James' reign as King of England, the plotters, the most famous of whom was Guy Fawkes, were tortured and sentenced to death. The differing cultures of England and Scotland would take time to fuse together, not least in terms of their governance, whereby the power exercised by the Stuarts in Scotland would be challenged in England by the latter's established parliamentary tradition. Though parliament and King James would ultimately tolerate each other; the differences would become too much when, in ten years' time in 1625, the thrones would be inherited by King Charles I, who believed in the unquestionable Divine Right of Kings, and consequently came to blows with parliament in the English Civil War...
In 1715, the relatively new Kingdom of Great Britain was being overseen by the even newer Hanoverian dynasty, with its monarch, King George I, inheriting the British throne just a year earlier. Hitherto, these had been changeable times for the British Isles, as King James II of England had been forced from the throne (albeit peacefully) in the so-called Glorious Revolution, for having Catholic beliefs and an authoritarian style of rule which ran counter to parliament's expectations, since they had apparently defeated royal absolutism at the end of the English Civil War. However, Queen Anne, the last of King James II's Protestant descendants, would die without offspring to succeed her. And so the parliament of the Kingdom of Great Britain, forged by the Act of Union between England and Scotland 8 years ago in 1707, had to consider whom of Queen Anne's closest relatives would uphold both the Protestant faith and political system of constitutional monarchy they were determined to preserve. So George, Queen Anne's second cousin, was approached as the Protestant leader of German state of Hanover. He accepted, although King George I would be much derided for his weak grasp of the English language. However, what may have seemed a farcical situation- a leader unable to effectively speak the same language as his people- actually bolstered Britain's progress towards becoming a more democratic, constitutional monarchy. As a consequence of his poor English, King George allowed his ministers to make more decisions amongst themselves and increasingly relied on one minister in particular, Sir Robert Walpole, who came to be regarded as a 'Primus Inter Pares': a 'First among equals', a first minister, the prime minister...
In 1815, Britain can breathe a great sigh of relief and relish in victory, as the Napoleonic Wars have come to an end this year, once and for all, with France's defeat at the Battle of Waterloo effectively leaving Great Britain (for the time being at least) the world's unchallenged, dominant power. The British Empire meanwhile continues to grow in size, to become the largest empire in history. Moreover, the final step of integration of the British Isles has been taken as, 14 years ago, a further Act of Union was passed to make the islands effectively one country: the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. And overseeing all this progress was King George III, the figure whose golden jubilee, a reign of 50 years, was celebrated across Britain and the Empire 5 years ago. However, things were not by any means perfect, as Britain's politicians (rather than the monarch) needed to preserve peace and restore stability after decades of expensive and intense warfare with France. Meanwhile, despite being at the heart of national celebrations in 1810, in reality King George III's mental health, and subsequently his physical health, was deteriorating quickly, to the extent that, behind the scenes of the golden jubilee, politicians were working on a law that would transfer the King's power to his son and heir, Prince George, while King George III would remain head of state in theory alone. Four years ago, in 1811, the Regency of George, the Prince of Wales, would begin, and last until the eventual death of King George III in 1820- a year which could have been marked by celebrations of his diamond jubilee...
In 1915, yet another King George is on the British throne at a time of war; but while King George III, for all his frailties by the final years of his reign, had overseen the expansion of Britain's global power thanks to a decisive victory; his descendent, King George V, was still seeing his country and empire struggle through what was at the time called the Great War, and would later be known as the First World War. Moreover, while King George III saw the final unification of the British Isles under not only one monarch, but also one government; King George V would the first steps towards its dissolution, with Ireland increasingly granted self-government once the First World War is over. Nevertheless, in the years ahead, King George V had good health, effective judgement, and an avoidance of responsibility when matters took a downturn (thanks to Britain's now well-established conventions of a restricted, constitutional monarchy), in his favour. But these factors by no means guaranteed security for the King, as there was increased scrutiny of the roots and institution of the British monarchy. As the second monarch of the Saxe-Coburg Gotha dynasty, descended from the iconic royal partnership of the Hanoverian, Queen Victoria, and her consort, Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg Gotha, whose name was passed on to Britain's contemporary reigning dynasty. The royal houses of both Hanover and Saxe-Coburg Gotha were German in origin, which made the position of King George V awkward during the First World War, as Britain's primary enemy was Germany- a country led by the King's cousin, Emperor Wilhelm II. To overcome these apparent attributes that could be said to evidence the questionable loyalty of the King and British royal family, King George V authorised the changing of the dynasty's name from Saxe-Coburg Gotha to Windsor- taking the new name from the location of the King's favourite royal residence in England, two years on in 1917. A year after this, King George V would be at the heart of celebrations in Britain and the Empire, as the King's realms formed an integral part of the victorious forces that defeated Germany. Moreover, King George V would then be able to breathe a sigh of relief as his country became one of the few prominent, European countries, to maintain the institution of monarchy: soon after the War, the Ottoman Sultan was dismissed from the rump Republic of Turkey; at the very end of the War, while the German Emperor was deposed and went in exile to the Netherlands, the Austro-Hungarian Emperor saw his sprawling empire dismembered and his thrones dissolved, with his attempts to restore them resulting in his forced exile to the Atlantic island of Madeira; but the worst fate was that of King George V's Russian counterpart, the Tsar, who was not only deposed in his country's first revolution, but was ultimately executed (along with his wife, children, members of staff, and allegedly even his pet dog) by the beneficiaries of the second revolution, the communist revolutionaries led by Vladimir Lenin...
Now, in 2015, the British monarchy seems, in many ways, very secure. The current monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, is regularly deemed more popular than her nation's elected leaders in opinion polls, while her jubilees have been celebrated in the United Kingdom and across the Commonwealth- the voluntary, successor organisation to the British Empire. Meanwhile the succession crises that have undermined several of her predecessors seem highly unlikely to reoccur any time soon, as we can now theoretically see who will be the country's heads of state for potentially a century, anticipating the accession of first her son, to reign either as King Charles III or King George VII, followed by her grandson, King William V, and finally her great-grandson, King George VII or VIII. However, as we can see from the past, the country's developments, and in turn the continuation of the monarchy, can be very difficult to predict...!
In 1215, King John of England, the monarch demonised in the legends of Robin Hood, signed the famous agreement, the Magna Carta or 'Great Charter'. The document has been much celebrated over the centuries as a key feature of the English and, ultimately, British constitution, whereby the principle of restricting the power of the country's leaders, and guarantees of the rights of the nation's subjects, were established in writing. Not introduced by the goodwill of the monarch however, King John was compelled to do so by the influential section of English feudal society, the barons. This was evidenced by his attempt soon after to disregard the document, which led to the renewal of conflict between King John and the barons until his death the following year, while these tensions in English society were inherited by his son and successor, King Henry III, who would himself be compelled to make a concession to democracy as great as his father's concession to civil liberties: just as King John signed the Magna Carta, so King Henry III would be held to account by a Parliament in Westminster, London, consisting of influential figures in English society...
In 1315, England was again experiencing the rule of a King who was perceived as weak and lacked the support of his people. King Edward II had been on the throne for 8 years, having failed to match up to the impressive legacy of his father, the warrior-king Edward I, known as 'Hammer of the Scots' for his relentless attempts to conquer Scotland, who had hoped to duplicate his successful conquest of Wales and its annexation to the Kingdom of England. In 1314, by contrast, King Edward II came to be associated with defeat in the Battle of Bannockburn, when England's larger armies were nevertheless defeated by the smaller forces of King Robert 'the Bruce' of Scotland- marking a major setback for England's ambitions. Moreover, King Edward II even lacked the support of his wife, Queen Isabella, who herself personally helped lead a rebellion against her husband which forced him from the throne, into imprisonment, and ultimately death (allegedly killed by a burning hot poker being forced up his backside), which ultimately allowed for the accession of his son, another warrior-king, Edward III, who oversaw the beginnings of England's 'Hundred Years War' with France...
In 1415, the 'Hundred Years War', begun decades earlier by King Edward III of England, is in full swing. As if this isn't debilitating enough, the line of succession to the English throne has been complicated by the seizure of the English throne from King Richard II by his cousin, the Duke of Lancaster, who established the rule of the House of Lancaster, and reigned as King Henry IV. Despite his dubious claim to the English throne, and the boils that covered his body as an apparent sign of God's disapproval of his accession to the throne, King Henry IV nevertheless surprisingly laid the foundations for a smooth transfer of the throne to his son, who became King Henry V, upon his death two years earlier in 1413. In spite of these unstable times, at home and abroad, Henry V has gone down as a heroic monarch, as in this year he prestigiously won the great victory at the Battle of Agincourt- a key moment in the Hundred Years War with France. As a consequence of this victory, King Henry V was the first English monarch to be formally recognised as King of France. Alas, the triumph was to be short-lived, which was due to the King himself being short-lived: he died 7 years later, only in his mid-thirties, leaving the throne to his son, King Henry VI, who was barely a year old at his accession. King Henry VI's inability to reign effectively, even when he was old enough to handle the full responsibilities of his position, meant the prompt loss of, first, the throne of France; then, even the loss of the English throne, bringing about the Wars of the Roses between King Henry VI and his supporters from the House of Lancaster, versus the rival claim of Prince Edward of York...
In 1515, the divisive Wars of the Roses are at an end, with the claim of the White Rose of York defeated by the Red Rose of Lancaster, with the latter victory achieved by Henry Tudor: a Welshman with a relatively tenuous link to the House of Lancaster. Nevertheless, by a strategic marriage to Elizabeth of York to boost his legitimacy, King Henry VII's Tudor dynasty, symbolically represented by the Tudor Rose, consisting of the combined Red and White Roses of Lancaster and York respectively, endured, allowing a relatively stable start for the now-iconic King Henry VIII 6 years ago, in 1509. By 1515, King Henry VIII was widely perceived as an ideal monarch: a dashing man with a warrior-like image, asserting the ambitions of an increasingly confident England that was looking to expand its influence with a growing navy; a prestigious state visit to France, where he was greeted by the Field of the Cloth of Gold; while the King could look forward to formal recognition as King of Ireland as well as England, and acclamation from the Pope as Fidei Defensor, or Defender of the Faith, (a title still proclaimed on British coins today, with the abbreviation FID DEF appearing around the monarch's portrait). In his personal life, King Henry VIII also seemed to be happily married to Princess Catherine of Aragon, widow of his late brother, Prince Arthur, and daughter of the powerful Spanish royal family. However, in the years ahead, the King's determination to have a son as his heir would arguably lead to the King's annulment of this marriage, and ultimately five successive marriages in the space of the decade following his split from Catherine. To achieve this serial monogamy, King Henry VIII had had to end his allegiance to the Pope and the Roman Catholic Church, establishing the Protestant Church of England instead, of which he would be head, thus triggering centuries of religious conflict in the British Isles...
In 1615, the English were coming to terms with their accidental personal union with Scotland, under the shared monarch, King James. The first monarch of the entire British Isles, King James would at first be King James VI of Scotland, before inheriting the thrones of his cousin twice-removed, Queen Elizabeth I of England and Ireland, the last Tudor monarch. Ten years ago, in 1605, King James would not receive the warmest of welcomes by the English, as a group of conspirators, who would today most likely be labelled as terrorists and religious extremists, planned to destroy the Parliament of England, along with King James, in their iconic Gunpowder Plot as an assertion of Catholic dissent against the established Protestantism of Queen Elizabeth I, which they hoped her successor would overturn. Taking place only 2 years into King James' reign as King of England, the plotters, the most famous of whom was Guy Fawkes, were tortured and sentenced to death. The differing cultures of England and Scotland would take time to fuse together, not least in terms of their governance, whereby the power exercised by the Stuarts in Scotland would be challenged in England by the latter's established parliamentary tradition. Though parliament and King James would ultimately tolerate each other; the differences would become too much when, in ten years' time in 1625, the thrones would be inherited by King Charles I, who believed in the unquestionable Divine Right of Kings, and consequently came to blows with parliament in the English Civil War...
In 1715, the relatively new Kingdom of Great Britain was being overseen by the even newer Hanoverian dynasty, with its monarch, King George I, inheriting the British throne just a year earlier. Hitherto, these had been changeable times for the British Isles, as King James II of England had been forced from the throne (albeit peacefully) in the so-called Glorious Revolution, for having Catholic beliefs and an authoritarian style of rule which ran counter to parliament's expectations, since they had apparently defeated royal absolutism at the end of the English Civil War. However, Queen Anne, the last of King James II's Protestant descendants, would die without offspring to succeed her. And so the parliament of the Kingdom of Great Britain, forged by the Act of Union between England and Scotland 8 years ago in 1707, had to consider whom of Queen Anne's closest relatives would uphold both the Protestant faith and political system of constitutional monarchy they were determined to preserve. So George, Queen Anne's second cousin, was approached as the Protestant leader of German state of Hanover. He accepted, although King George I would be much derided for his weak grasp of the English language. However, what may have seemed a farcical situation- a leader unable to effectively speak the same language as his people- actually bolstered Britain's progress towards becoming a more democratic, constitutional monarchy. As a consequence of his poor English, King George allowed his ministers to make more decisions amongst themselves and increasingly relied on one minister in particular, Sir Robert Walpole, who came to be regarded as a 'Primus Inter Pares': a 'First among equals', a first minister, the prime minister...
In 1815, Britain can breathe a great sigh of relief and relish in victory, as the Napoleonic Wars have come to an end this year, once and for all, with France's defeat at the Battle of Waterloo effectively leaving Great Britain (for the time being at least) the world's unchallenged, dominant power. The British Empire meanwhile continues to grow in size, to become the largest empire in history. Moreover, the final step of integration of the British Isles has been taken as, 14 years ago, a further Act of Union was passed to make the islands effectively one country: the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. And overseeing all this progress was King George III, the figure whose golden jubilee, a reign of 50 years, was celebrated across Britain and the Empire 5 years ago. However, things were not by any means perfect, as Britain's politicians (rather than the monarch) needed to preserve peace and restore stability after decades of expensive and intense warfare with France. Meanwhile, despite being at the heart of national celebrations in 1810, in reality King George III's mental health, and subsequently his physical health, was deteriorating quickly, to the extent that, behind the scenes of the golden jubilee, politicians were working on a law that would transfer the King's power to his son and heir, Prince George, while King George III would remain head of state in theory alone. Four years ago, in 1811, the Regency of George, the Prince of Wales, would begin, and last until the eventual death of King George III in 1820- a year which could have been marked by celebrations of his diamond jubilee...
In 1915, yet another King George is on the British throne at a time of war; but while King George III, for all his frailties by the final years of his reign, had overseen the expansion of Britain's global power thanks to a decisive victory; his descendent, King George V, was still seeing his country and empire struggle through what was at the time called the Great War, and would later be known as the First World War. Moreover, while King George III saw the final unification of the British Isles under not only one monarch, but also one government; King George V would the first steps towards its dissolution, with Ireland increasingly granted self-government once the First World War is over. Nevertheless, in the years ahead, King George V had good health, effective judgement, and an avoidance of responsibility when matters took a downturn (thanks to Britain's now well-established conventions of a restricted, constitutional monarchy), in his favour. But these factors by no means guaranteed security for the King, as there was increased scrutiny of the roots and institution of the British monarchy. As the second monarch of the Saxe-Coburg Gotha dynasty, descended from the iconic royal partnership of the Hanoverian, Queen Victoria, and her consort, Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg Gotha, whose name was passed on to Britain's contemporary reigning dynasty. The royal houses of both Hanover and Saxe-Coburg Gotha were German in origin, which made the position of King George V awkward during the First World War, as Britain's primary enemy was Germany- a country led by the King's cousin, Emperor Wilhelm II. To overcome these apparent attributes that could be said to evidence the questionable loyalty of the King and British royal family, King George V authorised the changing of the dynasty's name from Saxe-Coburg Gotha to Windsor- taking the new name from the location of the King's favourite royal residence in England, two years on in 1917. A year after this, King George V would be at the heart of celebrations in Britain and the Empire, as the King's realms formed an integral part of the victorious forces that defeated Germany. Moreover, King George V would then be able to breathe a sigh of relief as his country became one of the few prominent, European countries, to maintain the institution of monarchy: soon after the War, the Ottoman Sultan was dismissed from the rump Republic of Turkey; at the very end of the War, while the German Emperor was deposed and went in exile to the Netherlands, the Austro-Hungarian Emperor saw his sprawling empire dismembered and his thrones dissolved, with his attempts to restore them resulting in his forced exile to the Atlantic island of Madeira; but the worst fate was that of King George V's Russian counterpart, the Tsar, who was not only deposed in his country's first revolution, but was ultimately executed (along with his wife, children, members of staff, and allegedly even his pet dog) by the beneficiaries of the second revolution, the communist revolutionaries led by Vladimir Lenin...
Now, in 2015, the British monarchy seems, in many ways, very secure. The current monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, is regularly deemed more popular than her nation's elected leaders in opinion polls, while her jubilees have been celebrated in the United Kingdom and across the Commonwealth- the voluntary, successor organisation to the British Empire. Meanwhile the succession crises that have undermined several of her predecessors seem highly unlikely to reoccur any time soon, as we can now theoretically see who will be the country's heads of state for potentially a century, anticipating the accession of first her son, to reign either as King Charles III or King George VII, followed by her grandson, King William V, and finally her great-grandson, King George VII or VIII. However, as we can see from the past, the country's developments, and in turn the continuation of the monarchy, can be very difficult to predict...!
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