One of the main stories in UK news for the first few months of 2015 is going to be the general election result. Many commentators consider this one of the hardest elections to predict for decades- but I'm going to try...
The reason why pollsters consider the result too difficult to call is because of the shifting trends over the past decade in British politics; in part due to greater scepticism towards the governing parties, and an associated willingness of the public to look to alternative political parties. Disillusionment with Tony Blair's governing 'New' Labour, provoked first by its controversial backing for the Iraq War and then loss of confidence in its economic confidence (associated with the public deficit, at a time of economic vulnerability anyway due to global recession) lost them support in 2010. However, there seemed to be a lack of sufficient confidence in the Conservatives to entrust them with majority support in 2010, leading to the country's first fully-fledged coalition government since the Second World War (and on that occasion, created by design due to the War-rather than by accident of an indecisive result of an election). Since then, Labour have struggled to remove the stigma of untrustworthy management of public finances, as well as having a leader who seems to lack public confidence. Meanwhile, despite greater economic strength under the Conservative-led government, doubt still lingers in terms of the economy's ability to continue growing, as well as dubious success with the public debts the Conservatives so heavily criticised Labour for overseeing. This is not to mention a growing perception that the Conservatives are not as willing and able to uphold public services as Labour.
Pragmatic support provided by the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives has given them sustained influence over government policy for the first time since the fall of David Lloyd George's government following the First World War. However, association with controversial Conservative policies has tainted the Liberal Democrat's image as a fresh alternative to the two main parties, causing a drastic decline in their support: while the Left sees them as unprincipled backers of right-wing Conservative policies, the Right see the Liberal Democrats as a hindrance to full-blown Conservative policies, rather than the watered-down approach forced by the coalition arrangement.
Added to this mistrust of the country's traditional big three are another three alternatives: UKIP, Green, and SNP. Right-wingers perhaps sceptical of Cameron's more centrist approach tended not to be reassured by the centrism continued for the most part by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, are increasingly turning to UKIP: more conservative than the Conservatives. Loudly trumpeting very conservative views and values, nostalgic and disillusioned voters are turning to UKIP, as the party ventures beyond its traditional focus on Euroscepticism. Drawing particular attention is the issue of immigration, one which has increased in prominence for many voters, and yet one which mainstream politicians tend to avoid for fear of causing offence and being accused of racism; meanwhile, UKIP are very willing to confront the issue, which sections of the population find appealing- in addition to their generally very conservative stance on most issues. Traditionally, immigration has been a largely working class concern. This, coupled with the perception of the three main parties consisting of, and therefore acting in the interests of, a narrow elite, allows UKIP to portray itself as a new party of the working class, taking up the mantle of Thatcherite Conservatism and trade unionist Labour.
Balancing this new force on Britain's political right is a quietly growing force on the left: the Green party, which achieved its first seat in the House of Commons in 2010. Disillusionment with Labour and the Liberal Democrats on the left allows the Greens to portray themselves as the alternative option. The mirror image similarities between the Greens and UKIP are remarkable: just as UKIP appeals to the traditional right, the Greens appeal to the traditional left. Moreover, just as UKIP has branched out beyond a focus on European issues, so the Greens have extended their policy focus beyond environmental concerns. Whilst Labour and the Liberal Democrats are more cautious with their promises of wealth redistribution, the Greens are less inhibited, publicly advocating more taxes on the wealthy to support the poor. In addition, at a time when railways are facing heavy criticism for increasing prices at the same time as very obvious failures in service, the Green policy of renationalising the railways is an option more people are willing to consider.
Finally, as a consequence of the closely-contested 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, the SNP are able to strongly argue that they represent the views of that large minority of Scots who voted for independence- as well as those who were dissatisfied after the referendum with the lack of speed and scale of reforms that would see the Scottish Parliament gain more powers from the UK-wide government.
So, with more working class support shifting from Labour and the Conservatives to UKIP; left-wing middle class votes anticipated to go to the Greens instead of Labour and the Liberal Democrats; and swathes of disillusioned supporters of Scottish independence turning to the SNP instead of Labour; it is difficult to predict how much difference this shifting support from the 3 main parties to another 3 will have on the general election result. Significant though these trends are, however, I feel that they can be overestimated- particularly with the UK's first past the post system. I anticipate that the 3 minor parties will increase the number of seats they have in the House of Commons, and significantly increase the number of votes they win in comparison with 2010. However, I expect an overall result similar to 2010: Conservatives with a plurality of votes, followed by Labour, then the Liberal Democrats. Moreover, I can see as things stand yet another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, albeit a weaker one, as I can expect both of these parties to lose seats compared with 2010, and I expect Labour to gain seats- but not by enough to change the outcome of yet another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, with Labour as opposition, while there will be more vocal opposition, and bold criticism of the three main parties, from UKIP, Green and SNP MPs.
If anything, I expect the next election after this year's to have the more drastic outcome: one where either current trends will continue, and British politics will become even more divided; or one of the main political parties will find a leader who will inspire public support and command a majority in Parliament- another Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair...
